The watch industry is undergoing a significant transformation, and the latest report by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult sheds light on some intriguing developments. The Swiss watch market is facing a contraction, and the industry is becoming increasingly polarized.
Following the release of Vontobel's Luxury Goods report, which analyzed the top 10 watch brands for 2025, Morgan Stanley's annual deep dive into the watch industry provides valuable insights. This highly anticipated report ranks the top 50 watch brands based on turnover and unit sales, offering a comprehensive overview of the market.
The 2025 report highlights a concerning trend: the Swiss watch market is shrinking, with exports down by 1.7% in value. This contraction follows a record year in 2023, but the market has now experienced two consecutive years of decline. According to estimates, the total retail value of the market now stands at approximately CHF 49 billion (excluding VAT).
But here's where it gets controversial... Morgan Stanley's analysis reveals that industry volumes have halved since 2011. The report states, "The total number has declined by a cumulative -44% since the 2008 recession and -51% since the most recent peak in 2011. The number of quartz watches has essentially halved, while mechanical watch exports remain relatively stable."
When we delve into the top 50 brands' performance in 2025, the picture becomes even more intriguing. The market is divided into two distinct segments: a handful of key players gaining market share and the majority of brands experiencing sales declines.
The market is dominated by six key players: Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Richard Mille. However, two of these brands are owned by larger groups, and four are privately owned. These "Big 4" of the watch industry have shown resilience, continuing to gain market share despite market uncertainties. Interestingly, their growth was relatively limited in 2025, with Rolex, for example, managing scarcity to maintain brand desirability.
Some brands faced particularly challenging times in 2025. Within the top 50, an estimated 10 brands experienced a turnover contraction of 15% or more. These include Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet (all part of Swatch Group), Panerai, Roger Dubuis (part of Richemont), Zenith (part of LVMH), Girard-Perregaux, and Franck Muller.
The industry's polarization is evident, with the top 4 brands accounting for over 50% of the market in 2025, up from 55% in 2024. This trend is a common development across the luxury goods sector. Additionally, the "billionaires' club" has contracted, with Longines exiting the group this year.
And this is the part most people miss... the market is ultra-premiumizing. Watches priced above CHF 50,000 represented 37% of export value and contributed 89% of total growth in 2025, despite accounting for only 1.4% of volumes. This trend suggests that ultra-luxury watches are thriving, while the core range of the Swiss watch industry is facing challenges.
However, the Swatch Group remains dominant at the entry and mid-tier levels, selling approximately 8.8 million watches in 2025, which accounts for about 60% of the Swiss watch industry's volume.
High-end independent watchmakers are also thriving, with brands like F.P. Journe, H. Moser & Cie., and MB&F reportedly increasing their revenues in 2025. Notably, Christopher Ward has joined the top 50 brands, showcasing the success of mid-range independent watchmakers.
The watch industry's future is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the market is polarizing, and the ultra-premium segment is gaining prominence. What do you think? Is the industry heading towards a new era of exclusivity? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
