Bold statement: Australia’s childhood vaccination rates are slipping, and the risk to children’s health is rising as preventable diseases creep back into everyday life. But here’s where it gets controversial: the problem isn’t just about science—it’s about trust, access, and how we communicate with families. If we don’t fix both belief and barriers, we could undo decades of public health progress.
Overview
Vaccination has been one of Australia’s most successful public health achievements. Before COVID-19, the country met a national target: 95% of one-year-olds fully vaccinated. This level of protection placed Australia among the world’s leading performers in immunisation.
Vaccines shield children from serious illnesses such as diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), polio, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and pneumococcal disease. These diseases can cause intense pain, hospitalisation, life-threatening complications, and long-term health problems.
However, progress is reversing. Since the pandemic, the share of fully vaccinated one-year-olds has continued to decline, and in some regions it has fallen to around 80%.
The risks are tangible. Whooping cough notifications are at their highest level in 35 years, measles exposure sites have appeared in Sydney and regional New South Wales—including hospitals and a high school hall—and public health agencies are watching for new outbreaks.
The global context underscores the stakes. In the United States, measles hospitalisations have risen this year, while Canada has lost its official measles-free status. A London outbreak is hospitalising children and may force unvaccinated youngsters to stay home from school. These developments illustrate how falling vaccination rates can have broad and immediate consequences.
Why aim high?
One-year-old children who are fully immunised typically receive vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, hepatitis B, Hib, and pneumococcal disease.
High coverage is essential to achieve herd immunity: when enough people are protected, the spread of disease is hindered, safeguarding those who cannot be vaccinated, such as infants too young to be vaccinated or individuals with weakened immune systems.
With 95% vaccination, even highly contagious diseases like measles struggle to spread, which protects both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.
The slide in rates
Grattan Institute analysis shows a clear, sustained decline in Australia’s one-year-old vaccination rates over the last five years. By the year ending 30 September 2025, 92% of one-year-olds were fully vaccinated, down from 95% in 2020.
Regional disparities have widened. Five years ago, 56% of regions and suburbs met the national target; today, only 18% do.
Disparities are most pronounced in areas with historically lower coverage. In the top 10% of areas with the highest uptake, vaccination fell only modestly—from 98% in 2020 to 97% in 2025. In contrast, the bottom 10% saw declines of 5.7 percentage points—from about 90% to 84%—a far steeper drop.
Most regions have not seen increases in vaccination rates, and every state contains areas with sharp declines.
Examples of notable declines include:
- Bankstown, Sydney: 92.2% to 84.8%
- Keilor, Melbourne: 95.8% to 88.8%
- Gascoyne, Western Australia: 95.6% to 76.9%
- Nerang, Queensland: 94.1% to 82.2%
- Barkly, Northern Territory: 96.2% to 87.0%
- Meander Valley and West Tamar, Tasmania: 92.6% to 83.5%
There is no single profile of a community at risk. Declines span cities and rural areas, affluent and less affluent locales, and every major city.
Why the decline?
There isn’t a single cause. The latest National Vaccination Insights project points to a mix of psychological barriers to acceptance and practical barriers to access.
Misinformation and the heated debates around COVID-19 vaccines have likely eroded trust in childhood vaccines. Among parents with unvaccinated children, about half question vaccine safety.
Practical barriers also play a role. About one in four parents with partially vaccinated children report difficulty securing an appointment when a shot is due.
A call to action for governments
Authorities at the federal and state levels recognise the problem and are poised to act with a new national vaccination strategy announced last year. This strategy prioritises: rebuilding trust in vaccines, strengthening the vaccination workforce, using data to target efforts, and increasing accountability for results.
The next decisive step lies in budgets. In the coming months, government funding must translate strategy into action across the spectrum of initiatives:
- public advertising and campaigns to promote vaccination
- addressing misinformation through understanding community beliefs, tailoring messages, and supporting health workers in conversations with skeptical parents
- modernising data systems to monitor trends and target interventions
- expanding access by delivering vaccines in more places, such as workplaces, community centres, and homes
Crucially, targets must be tougher and more localized funding is needed to help communities catch up.
Australia has achieved ambitious vaccination targets before. Returning to pre-pandemic levels will be more challenging than reaching them originally, but with renewed effort, resources, and localised strategies, the country can protect its children.
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Discussion prompts
What do you think should be the priority: increasing overall national coverage or fixing gaps in the hardest-hit communities first? How would you balance public messaging with respect for parental concerns? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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